By buddhavilasyadavb@gmail.com 
It is the regular season, and it is time to bring in the tried and true staple if you want the Cowboys to beat the Browns in Week 1 of the NFL regular season.We have the data that proves it: the more likes we get, the more likely it is the Dallas Cowboys win their individual matchup this week.
The Cowboys are on the road against the Browns in Week 1. A couple of different lines have been out there, but the one over on Bet US is Browns -1. You can see it high at 2 or 2.5 at some other spots out there, but either way, the Browns are favored as they host the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1 up in Cleveland.
The Cowboys were better last year; they had the number one scoring offense and number five scoring defense. The Browns’ scoring defense numbers were low deceptively because the offense actually had some major issues. Their EPA numbers are much higher in that regard, which I think carries some fairly significant value and things that should be considered. They should be better this year. We’ll see how Deshaun Watson plays.
But Browns are favored in Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys. So before we preview the game, injury report, keys to watch, etc., let’s troll our Browns report host, Matthew Peterson. I want you to spam FPD in the comment section. Whoever comments FPD the most gets a free raffle entry into our Week 1 jersey giveaway. So, everyone in the comments, spam FPD! If an ad comes up here on YouTube, it’s a great time to take advantage. Head down there and flood the comment section by spamming FPD. I cannot wait to send PD the screenshot of all the comments.
The injury report is not going to be officially put out till Wednesday. The six names Tom Monor and all got at least some limited work in on Monday, so good news there. Brandon Cooks said the knee and personal stuff are heading in the right direction. Wan’Dale Thomas is back at practice from his groin injury. Israel Mukuamu is back with an undisclosed injury—also might have been a groin issue. Zack Martin has a little tweaked ankle, but he seems to be fine; they’re being cautious. The line from Big Mike is that DeMarcus Lawrence has been back for a little bit, and Jamon Clark’s knee has also been better. Knock on wood, nothing changes, but the vibes from the Cowboys are that they’re all trending in the right direction from their injury perspective, which is a big deal since the Browns are a bit nicked up. Guys like Jedrick Wills might not play a tackle, but Cowboys are mostly healthy, minus, of course, DaRon Bland, who we know is not going to play.
Keys to Victory between the Cowboys and the Browns:
- Protect Dak Prescott: This is no easy task, given what is going to be opposite one of your tackles. The Cowboys’ starting five offensive linemen are Tyler Smith, Zack Martin, Cooper Rush, Tyler Biadasz, and Terence Steele. The very challenging task for the Dallas Cowboys is blocking one of the best football players in the game: Myles Garrett, the Browns pass rusher. His numbers dipped last year as he battled some injuries, but he played through them and was still really good. They have guys like Za’Darius Smith and Alex Wright along the defensive line. If you’re building a list of premier pass rushers in football, whether they’re ranked 1, 2, or 21, Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons are on that list. It is a dynamic pass-rushing group. It might be against Tyler Smith or Terence Steele. I would not sleep on how to protect Dak Prescott against Myles Garrett. They should probably chip with tight ends. If the Browns are smart, they’ll be moving Myles Garrett around. They did stuff over center with him last year, too. I would not be surprised if, on third and long, Myles Garrett is a standup pass rusher right over the face of Cooper Rush. That’s not a fun place to be, so protecting Dak Prescott and not letting Myles Garrett destroy your offensive game plan is probably task number one for the Cowboys’ offense.
- Stop the Run: Even without Nick Chubb, who is not going to play, I would fully expect the Browns to have a heavy dose of ground game work. That means Jerome Ford, Pierre Strong, and Deonta Foreman. The Browns can run the football—they’ve always been able to run the football pretty well under Kevin Stefanski. Their offensive line injuries could be a red flag, but if you are the Browns, isn’t your mindset going to be, “Hey, let us try to run the ball against a shaky run defense”? You’ll see Osa Odighizuwa, Mazi Smith, and Jordan Phillips. I assume Linvall Joseph will be good to go after ramping up to speed after missing all of training camp. It’s a shaky front four for Dallas in terms of run stoppers. It’s Tank Lawrence and a bunch of question marks. Better linebacker play will help, but the Browns like to control the football—they want to run the ball, protect their own quarterback for different reasons than the Cowboys want to keep Dak Prescott upright.
- Pressure Deshaun Watson: Watson, under pressure, has not been very good. Most quarterbacks take a step back under pressure; it is harder, simply put. Last year, per Next Gen Stats, Watson completed under 45% of his passes, with 5.6 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, one interception. Most critically, he took 17 sacks in six games. That’s a lot. Deshaun Watson doesn’t handle pressure well—his pocket movement is kind of panicky, and he drifts, makes mistakes, and sometimes does stupid stuff. If you can get after him, he will make mistakes. He has done that time and time again as the Browns’ QB. Make me look smart, Dallas—make Deshaun Watson make a bunch of mistakes. Force that pressure.
- Dak Prescott’s Performance: Dak Prescott returns as either the MVP or MVP runner-up, and you don’t want the slow starts that you’ve battled consistently in big games. Objectively speaking, in the regular season, Dak Prescott was awesome. I still think he probably should have won MVP over Lamar Jackson. Maybe if your defense could have gotten a stop against the Dolphins, they would have been better. Either way, second-team All-Pro is not bad, but in the biggest games, this entire team has a tendency to start pretty slowly, not just Dak but he’s a big part of that. He has to be better. I want to see the good version of Dak. I would argue that from your overall roster construction, the Browns’ defense is probably better. They have a better head coach than Kevin Stefanski. Because of their offensive line, you might have the advantage there. You have the better number one receiver, but the playmakers overall could slightly favor, just barely, the Browns. The ground game is better. The biggest reason why we probably have some confidence in Dallas being able to beat Cleveland is the difference in quarterback play. Dak’s a top 10 quarterback, no matter what. Deshaun Watson wasn’t a starting-caliber QB last year; he was pretty bad. You get good Dak and bad Deshaun—Dallas wins that game.
It also requires you to not be stupid and look at his Week 1; it’s going to be sloppy. There are going to be mistakes, turnovers, and penalties. The NFL penalty leaders from 2023 were the Jets with 124 flags for 945 yards, but Dallas was number one in total penalty yardage with nearly 1,000 yards. That’s really bad. The Browns are also tied in penalty yardage with 85 flags. This might be a sloppy football game with a lot of penalties. Hopefully, Dallas doesn’t make as many as they normally do. So, we’re bringing it back this year again—bully the Dallas Cowboys into committing fewer penalties. Spam FLAGS for me in the comment section of today’s show. Bully those Cowboys!
If this game were played in Week 4, I would pick the Dallas Cowboys to beat the Cleveland Browns in Week 1. I don’t like that matchup. I’ll probably take the money line on principle, but my actual prediction is that I do think the Browns have the advantage here with the timing being at home and an offensive line that still hasn’t actually played a real game together against Myles Garrett.
That scares me. I still think this is a 10-win football team, but I don’t like the matchup in Week 1. So prove me wrong, Dallas—take care of business and beat the crap out of the Browns. I’ve got a bunch of family who are Browns fans. My mother-in-law is a big Browns fan. I don’t want to deal with that. So, please win the game and prove me wrong.
